Unintuitively hard things to automate

2024-02-28

Here are a few problem domains that I thought would've been solved before the advent of "generative AI that can turn text prompts into videos," but it turns out I am wrong and they are deceptively hard:

Automated long haul freight trucks

Via DALLE 2: a freight truck on a snowy highway, in the style of a watercolor painting
Via DALLE 2: "a freight truck on a snowy highway, in the style of a watercolor painting"

As a layperson, I assumed that self-driving freight trucks on highways would be a light version of full "level-5 autonomy passenger vehicles in cities." The logic seems simple: it's mostly following well-marked lanes, and there are no intersections. But it turns out that highway driving is actually MUCH harder than autonomous city driving (which - to be clear - is already an extremely difficult problem). Engineers seem to inevitably discover that when they create startups trying to disrupt long-haul trucking:

Automated food assembly

Every few years I see a demo for some robotic machine for making burgers, pizza, pasta, or sandwiches, and I end up...underwhelmed? Unfortunately the most common pattern is a test deployment in some novel concept restaurant somewhere, and then eventually the whole operation folds up shop.

Having prepared a lot of food myself, I think I was surprised by how difficult it is to automate at scale? Let's consider:

Automated brick laying

Via DALLE 2: a complicated brick laying robotic contraption at a construction site, watercolor painting
Via DALLE 2: "a complicated brick laying robotic contraption at a construction site, watercolor painting"

Brick laying seems like it'd be straightforward-ish, because it's just laying a set pattern over and over again. But in practice:

...and automating building construction in general

Unfortunately one component of high housing prices is high construction costs, and productivity in the construction industry has stagnated for decades (and is maybe even moving backwards in some advanced countries). But making progress with automation seems to be pretty hard because:

[1] I have, however, seen some pretty cool videos of automated brick-laying for brick roads, which seems easier (they lie flat against prepared ground, and no windows or doors!).